The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Monday, November 1, 2010

Consumers only expect 2.6% house price growth over next 12 months...

Westpac's new "Red Book" offers an outstanding analysis of changes in consumer sentiment. I have previously written about their survey of consumer house price expectations. This is the October summary:

"Some 63% of consumers expect house prices to rise over the next year – down from 70% in July and a peak of 84% in April and Jan. The proportion of optimists is also below the 74% recorded this time last year though it is still comfortably above the 53% reported in July 2009. Just under a quarter expect prices to remain the same with just over 12% predicting declines, the latter unchanged from July. The spread of responses in October points to an average expected price rise of 2.6% over the next 12 months, down from 3.6% in the July survey and 5.7% in the April survey. House price growth exceeded expectations in the year to July, coming in at around 10-12%yr nationally according to private sector measures. Only 9% of consumers were expecting 10%+ price gains in the July 2009 survey."

Westpac have also produced some cool charts dissecting their data, including one mapping expectations against the RP Data-Rismark house price index...